虎嗅注：北京时间4月25日破晓，拼多多公布2019财年年报。年报显示，2019年拼多多实现成交额10066亿元，平台年活跃买家数达5.852亿，年营收301.4亿元。从用户数看，建立4年半的拼多多已经成为中国第二大电商平台。

拼多多创始人、董事长兼CEO黄峥随同年报公布了股东信。

这是自拼多多IPO以来，黄峥发的第三封股东信。与前两封一样，黄峥一如既往地强调“新”，以刻意将拼多多区隔于传统电商模式；同时，今年黄峥在信中亘古未有地表达了对天下、历史、人类走向与运气的感伤。从英文信可以看出，全封信的主角不是“拼多多”，而是“时间”，黄在信中思索何谓“时间”、“时间与人类存在的关系”，并表达了对时间的谦卑与感恩。

信发出后，有的人说故弄玄虚，有的人说高屋建瓴，仁者智者，各取所需。

以下为黄峥2020年度致股东信中文版全文。（头图来自：东方IC）

今夕何夕？

今年2月，COVID-19作为一个新词汇在全球家喻户晓，并推翻了我们的一样平时生涯。就在我誊写这封信的时刻，天下上仍有一半的人蜗居家中，无助地守候着引发全球危急的小小病毒尽快消逝。守候之初，我们急切希望生涯能够重回正轨；而越来越漫长的守候，则让我们逐渐忘记了时间。

今天，我们正身处怎样的时间之中？时间又事实是什么？

对人类来说，这是一个危急的时刻，流言和杂乱四起，人们因差别的理念意见而发生盘据，甚至是匹敌。这是一个百年不遇的特殊时刻，不外也许它也只不外是历史长河中一个再平时不外的片晌。

病毒是大自然向人类派出的危险“信使”。出于生计本能，我们竭尽所能地调动自身的机体能量与之匹敌。这种匹敌的副产品是伤及自身甚至致命。很快，鏖战从单个生物体蔓延至整个社会有机体，差别巨细差别类型的公司、政府和国家，都在用自己的方式匹敌这一威胁，其副产品也是不可避免地伤及自身。

这一切只是源于一个险些看不见，脱离宿主都无法复制的病毒。一个携带了一些信息（RNA）和很少能量的小小“信使”而已。这和数十年来我们担忧的原子能威胁形成了鲜明的对比。一朵可以升腾出伟大能量的乌云，与自身险些毫无能量的“信使”，谁会给人类造成更大、更持久的危害？

这真是如幻如梦…… 这是大自然给我们的一个启示？一个教训？抑或是对我们的责罚，照样救赎？也许，仅仅是大自然和人类开的一个小小的玩笑？

新生之时

当爱因斯坦写下他著名的方程式 E＝MC²时，他优雅地（某种意义上，也可以说是傲慢地）描绘了他脑海中的物质天下。但他并没有注释那描绘物质天下的精神天下与客观物质天下之间的关系，也没有注释能量与信息之间的关系。

今天，全天下都处在一种通例的反常中。成万上亿的人被迫困在家中，与亲朋好友星散。然而，我们又同时通过某种精神和情绪连结在一起。这种关系也影响着我们所能感知到的物理天下。虚拟天下和物理天下之间的界限亘古未有地模糊，我们最先看到（而不仅仅是想象）一个新的天下正在走来。

或者，更精准地说，是一个全新的人类天下正在走来。在这个新天下中，“虚拟现实”一词已经过时。现实和虚拟可以相互转换，现实变得虚幻，虚幻却是现实一种。同样，人类物质与精神需求之间的划分也愈发模糊。

当这个细小的病毒进入人类天下时，它就像试管中的催化剂一样，加速了新天下的形成。已往天下的某些维度在被重构，一些规则也在被改写。这股席卷全球的气力将从根本上永远地改变我们所生计的天下。就像我在前面两封致股东信中注释“拼多多的降生”时所述，新物种将会以和早年完全不一样的样子在新的土壤中孕育和生长。现在，正是天下萌发新生，重新构建的时刻。

感受时间

1. Time with an arrow/direction （时间的偏向）

人类一直起劲地用我们所掌握的逻辑和原理，试图明白和控制天下。在许多事情上，我们确实成功过，好比科学。在科学的天下里，我们试图从客观物质天下里抽离出来，以超然的天主视角来举行“客观”的考察、明白，并通过有限的方程式来界说这个客观物质天下。在这样的框架中，时间变成了方程式 -t = (-)t 中的一个可逆参数。它只是形貌物体在按预定轨迹运动的方程式中的一个参数而已。

然则，当一个细微的病毒把我们从幻梦中惊醒，我们发现人类并没有凌驾于天下之上，仅仅是这个被考察的天下中的一个可忽略不计的组成部分而已。我们唯一能做的，是停下手中的一切，守候时间流逝，感受时间流过的痕迹。

我们进而意识到，时间很可能不应该是方程式中的一个可逆参数，它更像是一个不可逆的向量。它是一股壮大的有偏向的气力，默默地驱动着我们所见所感的一切事物。无论我们何等顽强地渴求着对称和永恒，时间总是在不停制造着世间种种的不对称、不可逆以及殒命。

热力学第一定律（∆U = Q-W）给予了我们一定的控制感和确定性，而热力学第二定律（∆S> = 0）又使我们谦卑地熟悉到有另外一种存在，在力和质量组成的物理天下之外。熵（S）与信息有关，我不确定熵是否连接着精神天下，但它确实可以辅助我感受和明白时间。时间不应该只是物理天下里一个可逆的变量，或是伶仃的存在于精神的想象，缄默而永不暂停的它更像是在物质和精神天下表象背后的那股壮大的有偏向的不可逆的驱动力。

2. Time, crowd and uncertainty （时间、人群和不确定性）

当牛顿最早展现F = M（dV / dT）时，它让我们有了“可以控制天下”的错觉，或至少给了我们可以掌控气力的某些明白和表示。我们不再感应忧郁，由于每个物体都可由其位置、质量、速率和作用力来计算出轨迹。我们假设每个物体的已往的所有历史都已经被其当前状态所完全包罗，而且每个物体都是自力的。在这样的假设下，大量物体之间的大量交互随着时间的推移将变得愈发庞大、杂乱，也会显示得不确定和随机。时间之矢似乎缔造了杂乱和不确定。而所谓概率，是对大量相互作用下简直定性的物体的轨迹聚集的一个近似统计形貌。

然则，当我们被隔离在家中，在焦虑和不安的情绪中守候时，我们最先嫌疑“每个物体之间的相互自力性”是否真的是我们在试图明白和注释天下时的一个准确的假设。在我们对确定性的盼望中，我们选择性地接受了诸如“物体间的自力性”这样的简朴假设，以辅助我们注释庞大的天下。我们的盼望是云云的强烈以至于让我们最先信赖这就是真理。

然则，若是概率和随机性原本就是每个物体的自然属性呢？若是大量的物体在本质上就是相互交织和关联的呢？就像我们的人类社会一样，无论每个个体有多自力，我们都在真实和虚拟的天下中，通过相互关联而界说自我的存在。由于物体存在这些内在联系，试图屏障物体之间的关联，研究伶仃个体的方式也就不再能够那么有用。相反，我们看到，时间推移下的个体间大量互动反而成为一种为社会和天下带来秩序和确定性的气力。我们再一次感受到了时间的气力和魔力。

掌握目前

当新型冠状病毒席卷全球时，每个机体都不得不面临大自然带来的残酷挑战。相对年轻的人或许心存一些荣幸与慰藉。这并不是说我们要在“危”中讨巧得利。任何妄图趁人之危或行使破绽使自身受益的想法，在时间眼前显得异常愚蠢，无异于一个狂妄的赌徒试图在赌场上赢过时间。

相反，我们感受到了需要加倍起劲工作的感动和动力。这是由于我们比以往任何时刻都更明白和珍惜名贵的青春。我们越发意识到我们应尽的责任。我们需要证实我们这一代人的与时俱进和与以往差别。在这个新天下中，新物种和新生物必将降生并茁壮成长。

大自然的蓬勃发展和趋势不会由于任何小我私家意志而改变。明白这些自然规则不应该让我们感应优越，更不可能让我们有能力统治自然。相反，这使我们能够谦卑地熟悉和认可，我们只不外是天下自然演变过程中的九牛一毫而已。

恰如一位诗人写道：“我冷眼向已往稍稍回首，只见它曲折浇灌的悲喜，都消逝在一片亘古的荒原。这才知道我的所有起劲，不外完成了通俗的生涯。”

带着这样的视角，我们既感应无比的谦卑和镇静，又无比感恩于拥有的名贵青春和担负着的重大责任。因此，我们将加倍坚定地投资未来，起劲建设眼前的新天下。在这新天下中，我们的美妙旅程才刚刚最先。

黄峥

谨代表拼多多

2020年4月20日

附：黄峥致股东信英文原文

What time? 

 

In February, the world learned a new word, “COVID-19”, which upended our lives. As I write this, half of the world remains confined at home, waiting for the tiny virus that causes COVID-19 to leave us. During the early days of the outbreak, as we waited in solidarity, we eagerly hoped to return to normal. But as the world has been put on hold week after week, we start to forget time.

We cannot help but ask ourselves, what is the time we are in now and what is time?

 

We are in a time of crisis – of division, misinformation, and chaos. The virus has caused countless conflicts and contrasts as we watch the news around us and worldwide. It is an unprecedented time to most of us. Yet if we put it in the context of the human history, it might just be a normal incident, a drop in the ocean.

 

This virus is a messenger by Mother Nature. Out of self-protection and preservation, our bodies desperately fought it using all the strength and energy available. Soon enough, the war against this seemingly unstoppable virus extended from our own bodies to the broader organisms that make up our society (if we see every institution as a living organism made up of people and relationships with a mission and purpose). Companies, governments, countries, big and small, are all scrambling in their own ways to combat this life-threatening virus. In these attempts, we possibly have unintentionally introduced more damage to ourselves. 

 

These all started with an almost invisible virus, a tiny messenger carrying some information (RNA) and a negligible amount of energy that, independent of a host, cannot even replicate. It is in stark contrast with nuclear threat, the power we feared for decades. Which is more capable of greater and more prolonged damage to our human society then - a mushroom cloud representing massive destructive energy, or a “messenger” with virtually no energy?

 

We cannot help but wonder if this is a lesson purposefully delivered, a punishment, a redemption, or simple irony? No matter what it is, it is surreal to me.

 

Time for new

 

When Einstein wrote down his famous E＝MC² , he elegantly (in some sense also arrogantly) depicted a physical world in his mind. However, what he did not explain in his theory of relativity is the relationship between the human mind and the physical world, nor the relationship between energy and information.  

 

Today, in this bizarre time, millions of people are staying at home, physically cut off from their families and friends. Yet we are connected and unified in spirit through shared sentiment, which in turn affects the physical world. The boundaries between the virtual and physical worlds are unprecedentedly blurred, and we are beginning to see (not just envision) a new world. In this new world, the phrase “virtual reality” is obsolete. Reality has become virtual and virtual has become part of reality. Similarly, the distinction between humanity’s physical needs and spiritual needs is also becoming vague.

 

When this tiny virus was dropped into our world, it acted just like a catalyst in a test tube, accelerating the formation of a whole new world. Inevitably, some dimensions of the previous world are being restructured, some rules are being rewritten. The impact of this sweeping force will fundamentally and permanently change the world we are in now. Just like what I explained in the previous shareholder letters about PDD’s formation, new models are bound to emerge and grow in a whole new setup. We are indeed seeing the phasing out of some as new ones emerge. It is the time of reestablishment.

 

Feel the time 

 

1. Time with an arrow/direction 

 

Human beings have long used reason to try to understand and control the world. In many cases, we succeeded, for example, science. In science, we strive to detach ourselves from the physical world we are in, to watch it as if we are a higher being “objectively” observing, understanding, and defining the world into a finite number of equations. In this framework, time is a reversible parameter in the equation -t = (-)t. It is merely a parameter in an equation to describe a predetermined trajectory of an object.

 

However, when an almost invisible virus awoken us to the reality that we are not above the world, but just a negligible part of the world to be observed, the only thing we can do is to sit still and let time carry its course. We then realize time is not really a parameter in an equation, but an irreversible vector. It is a silent and relentless directional force driving everything we see and feel. It effortlessly creates asymmetry, irreversibility and mortality, no matter how stubbornly and desperately we yearn for symmetry and immortality. 

 

While the first law of thermodynamics (∆U = Q-W) gives us a sense of control and certainty, the second law (∆S ≥ 0) humbles us to acknowledge the unknown beyond just force and mass we used to define our physical world. Entropy (S) also relates to information. I am not sure if entropy relates to the spiritual world, but it does help us feel and comprehend time. Again, it is not a reversible parameter, but a silent and irreversible driving force beyond and behind both the physical and the spiritual world.

 

2. Time, crowd and uncertainty 

 

When Newton revealed F=M(dV/dT), it gave us a delusive sense of control, or at least it allowed our wishful thinking that we can finally harness force. We no longer have to worry, because every object has a calculable trajectory determined by its position, mass, velocity and force. We assume each object’s current state fully encompasses and explains its past and that each object is independent. With that, large number of interactions among large number of objects over time would increase complexity and appear chaotic and uncertain, hence probabilistic. It seems that time has created this chaos and uncertainty. And probability is just a statistical aggregation of the trajectories of a large number of objects.

 

However, when we are isolated at home, waiting with anxiety and unsettling emotions, we start to doubt whether the notion of each object being independent is really a valid assumption in our attempt to understand and explain the world. In our yearning for certainty, we have conveniently chosen to accept some assumptions, such as independence among each object, that can help us explain the world. Our desire for certainty is so strong that we start believing it is truth.

 

But what if probability is a fundamental feature of each object, rather than a result of statistical aggregation? What if the large number of objects is intrinsically intertwined and interrelated? Just like our human society, no matter how independent each individual is, we are intrinsically connected both physically and spiritually. And these connections define who we are and our existence.

 

Because of these connections, the divide-and-conquer approach is no longer effective to reduce uncertainty. Instead, we see the large number of interactions among individuals over time becoming a force that brings order and certainty to the society. Again, we feel the force and magic of time. 

 

Seize the time 

 

When COVID-19 swept the earth, every organism was confronted with the brutal reality of Mother Nature. Some of us who are relatively young cannot help but to feel grateful and lucky. This is not to say that we see an opportunity to take advantage of during the crisis. In fact, I despise the saying “don’t waste a crisis”. A crisis is a crisis. Nobody can come out as a winner in the midst of a catastrophe. Any wishful thinking to capture the ‘opportunities’ (or exploiting loopholes) to benefit oneself seems foolish in the face of time. It is akin to a presumptuous gambler trying to outsmart time at a casino.  

 

Instead, we feel the urge to work even harder. Because we, more than ever, understand and appreciate how precious youth is. More than ever, we realize that we now have our duty to fulfil. We need to demonstrate that our generation is innovative and different, that in this new world, new species and new creatures are bound to emerge and grow. Mother Nature will flourish and progress, regardless of any individual’s will. Understanding these rules of nature does not make us feel superior, nor does it give us the power to rule and order. On the contrary, it humbles us to admit that we are just part of a natural evolution of the world. One poet captured it all: “As I silently look back, all the sorrows and joy, all the twists and turns, of life, vanished like sands in the desert. And now I know, all I have accomplished, is just a part of life.” 

 

With this perspective and in this new world, we feel humble and calm. We are tremendously grateful for our precious youth, and we feel the weight of our duty. As a result, we will be more than ever committed to investing in the future, and to be part of the driving force to the new world we are seeing. The journey has only started.

 

This is our Carpe Diem. This is our C’est La Vie.